Reconciled 2026-08-13 against the portfolio financial model’s re-base: this worksheet’s program series, contracted floors, and cost rows are unchanged by it. The re-base adjusted SPV sell-through pricing and financing mechanics, which this worksheet does not use.
Virridy's role here is offtake: buying CORSIA-eligible credits from Water Mission's certified systems and selling them on.
Water Mission finances, builds, and operates the water systems. Claiming their health impact on Virridy's ledger would double-count another organization's impact, so this page publishes no $/DALY. The honest Virridy-attributable metrics are climate value and margin integrity.
The contract is a deliberate loss-leader: 458,000 credits through 2030, including a 112,000-credit issued backlog bought above its resale price to bring the portfolio's largest certified partner into the platform.
Structural protection: Virridy neither pays nor takes delivery until credits are CORSIA-labeled, so labeling failure is a revenue risk, not a cash-loss risk.
| Series | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credits (tCO₂e) | 113,994 | 75,317 | 85,495 | 95,673 | 95,673 | 95,673 | 95,673 | 95,673 | 753,171 |
| Buy price ($/cr) | 18.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | — |
| Sell price ($/cr) | 13.50 | 14.50 | 15.00 | 15.50 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.00 | — |
| Virridy outlay ($) | 2,016,000 | 888,000 | 1,008,000 | 1,128,000 | 1,248,000 | 1,368,000 | 1,368,000 | 1,368,000 | 10,392,000 |
| Virridy revenue ($) | 1,512,000 | 1,073,000 | 1,260,000 | 1,457,000 | 1,872,000 | 2,052,000 | 2,052,000 | 2,052,000 | 13,330,000 |
| Margin ($) | −504,000 | 185,000 | 252,000 | 329,000 | 624,000 | 684,000 | 684,000 | 684,000 | 2,938,000 |
Updated 24 September 2026: the crediting basis on this page is the yield in use in the portfolio model, adopted 20 August 2026 from the independent due diligence reconstruction under Gold Standard SDWS V2.0. It replaces the yield this worksheet carried in August, and the credit series, cost per tonne and integrity-adjusted cost per tonne are recomputed on it.
All prices and volumes are proforma inputs: the 2026 backlog trades at $18 buy / $13.50 sell; subsequent vintages at $12 buy against a rising CORSIA sell curve, with the offtake channel to Louis Dreyfus.
| Single denominator | $10,392,000 | Virridy-attributable cost is the credit purchase outlay only. Water Mission's system capex and operations are excluded from BOTH sides of the ledger: no cost claimed, no health claimed. |
| Residual baseline factor | 0.80 | Judgment · flagged The 0.2 credits-per-person-year yield is booked but NOT yet reconstructed to the 2026 SDWS V2.0 methodology; this is the model's most decision-relevant pending item. |
| Delivery factor | 0.90 | remote-monitored systems, 18 certified communities |
| Credit integrity ratio | 0.72 | Formula 0.80 × 0.90 × 1.00 |
| $ / tonne, outlay basis | $13.80 | 13.4× below the $185 social cost of carbon |
| $ / tonne, integrity-adjusted | $19.16 | 9.7× below the SCC |
| Scenario | Credits | Margin | $/t outlay | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · contract + expansion to 2033 | 753,171 | $2,938,000 | $13.80 | as above |
| S1 · contracted-only, 458,000 to 2030 | 458,000 | $826,000 | $13.47 | 13.7× below the SCC; margin concentrated in later vintages |
| S2 · sell flat at $13.50 all years | 753,171 | $543,000 | $13.80 | the commercial finding is price-fragile while the climate finding holds |
| S3 · CORSIA labeling fails | 0 | $0 | — | no payment and no delivery until labeled: revenue risk, not cash-loss risk |
| Dimension | Rating | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Effect-size quality | No health effect modeled, by design. The climate quantity rests on the booked 0.2 yield, not yet reconstructed to SDWS V2.0; the 0.80 baseline residual prices that risk and the reconstruction gates v2. | |
| Counterfactual robustness | The systems operate regardless of Virridy; what Virridy adds is CORSIA market access and the revenue it returns. Another offtaker could plausibly fill this role: the carbon-side funging probability is the highest in the portfolio. | |
| Moral-weight transparency | Not applicable: no units of value are computed. Stated so the omission cannot be reintroduced silently. | |
| Attribution and integrity | The model refuses the welfare frame precisely because attribution is thin, and keeps costs and claims on the same outlay basis. | |
| Excluded factors | Excluded: system capex and operations (both sides), any health valuation, overhead allocation, and the working-capital cost of the 2026 backlog year ($2.0M out against $1.5M in). | |
| Ranking stability | The climate finding is stable, above 13× the SCC in every modeled case. The commercial finding is price-fragile: flat $13.50 selling compresses the margin to about $0.5M. |