Virridy's role here is offtake: buying CORSIA-eligible credits from Water Mission's certified systems and selling them on.
Water Mission finances, builds, and operates the water systems. Claiming their health impact on Virridy's ledger would double-count another organization's impact, so this page publishes no $/DALY. The honest Virridy-attributable metrics are climate value and margin integrity.
The contract is a deliberate loss-leader: 458,000 credits through 2030, including a 112,000-credit issued backlog bought above its resale price to bring the portfolio's largest certified partner into the platform.
Structural protection: Virridy neither pays nor takes delivery until credits are CORSIA-labeled, so labeling failure is a revenue risk, not a cash-loss risk.
| Series | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credits (tCO₂e) | 112,000 | 74,000 | 84,000 | 94,000 | 104,000 | 114,000 | 114,000 | 114,000 | 810,000 |
| Buy price ($/cr) | 18.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | — |
| Sell price ($/cr) | 13.50 | 14.50 | 15.00 | 15.50 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.00 | — |
| Virridy outlay ($) | 2,016,000 | 888,000 | 1,008,000 | 1,128,000 | 1,248,000 | 1,368,000 | 1,368,000 | 1,368,000 | 10,392,000 |
| Virridy revenue ($) | 1,512,000 | 1,073,000 | 1,260,000 | 1,457,000 | 1,872,000 | 2,052,000 | 2,052,000 | 2,052,000 | 13,330,000 |
| Margin ($) | −504,000 | 185,000 | 252,000 | 329,000 | 624,000 | 684,000 | 684,000 | 684,000 | 2,938,000 |
All prices and volumes are proforma inputs: the 2026 backlog trades at $18 buy / $13.50 sell; subsequent vintages at $12 buy against a rising CORSIA sell curve, with the offtake channel to Louis Dreyfus.
| Single denominator | $10,392,000 | Virridy-attributable cost is the credit purchase outlay only. Water Mission's system capex and operations are excluded from BOTH sides of the ledger: no cost claimed, no health claimed. |
| Residual baseline factor | 0.80 | Judgment · flagged The 0.2 credits-per-person-year yield is booked but NOT yet reconstructed to the 2026 SDWS V2.0 methodology; this is the model's most decision-relevant pending item. |
| Delivery factor | 0.90 | remote-monitored systems, 18 certified communities |
| Credit integrity ratio | 0.72 | Formula 0.80 × 0.90 × 1.00 |
| $ / tonne, outlay basis | $12.83 | 14.4× below the $185 social cost of carbon |
| $ / tonne, integrity-adjusted | $17.82 | 10.4× below the SCC |
| Scenario | Credits | Margin | $/t outlay | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · contract + expansion to 2033 | 810,000 | $2,938,000 | $12.83 | as above |
| S1 · contracted-only, 458,000 to 2030 | 458,000 | $826,000 | $13.47 | 13.7× below the SCC; margin concentrated in later vintages |
| S2 · sell flat at $13.50 all years | 810,000 | $543,000 | $12.83 | the commercial finding is price-fragile; the climate finding is not |
| S3 · CORSIA labeling fails | 0 | $0 | — | no payment and no delivery until labeled: revenue risk, not cash-loss risk |
| Dimension | Rating | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Effect-size quality | No health effect modeled, by design. The climate quantity rests on the booked 0.2 yield, not yet reconstructed to SDWS V2.0; the 0.80 baseline residual prices that risk and the reconstruction gates v2. | |
| Counterfactual robustness | The systems operate regardless of Virridy; what Virridy adds is CORSIA market access and the revenue it returns. Another offtaker could plausibly fill this role: the carbon-side funging probability is the highest in the portfolio. | |
| Moral-weight transparency | Not applicable: no units of value are computed. Stated so the omission cannot be reintroduced silently. | |
| Attribution and integrity | The model refuses the welfare frame precisely because attribution is thin, and keeps costs and claims on the same outlay basis. | |
| Excluded factors | Excluded: system capex and operations (both sides), any health valuation, overhead allocation, and the working-capital cost of the 2026 backlog year ($2.0M out against $1.5M in). | |
| Ranking stability | The climate finding is stable, above 13× the SCC in every modeled case. The commercial finding is price-fragile: flat $13.50 selling compresses the margin to about $0.5M. |