Sensor-monitored borehole repair across five arid counties, with carbon revenue committed to keeping the pumps running.
This program restores water access during drought; it does not treat water quality. That distinction decides what this page will and will not claim.
A defensible pathway from borehole uptime to averted DALYs in drought-affected ASAL counties has not yet been designed. Publishing one anyway would be false precision, so v1 declines to.
What the program can honestly claim today: measured service outcomes, climate value, and a financing mechanism that converts credits into pump maintenance. The evidence-adjustment pipeline is not applied because no health effect size is modeled; both facts are stated in the workbook so the omission cannot be reintroduced silently.
| Series | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net credits (tCO₂e) | 0 | 16,231 | 26,019 | 56,196 | 69,843 | 83,491 | 97,138 | 97,138 | 97,138 | 543,194 |
| Buy price to partner ($/cr) | 9.20 | 9.20 | 9.30 | 9.50 | 9.60 | 9.70 | 9.80 | 9.90 | 9.90 | — |
| Sell price, channel ($/cr) | 15 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 30 | 30 | — |
| Virridy purchases ($) | 0 | 149,325 | 241,977 | 533,862 | 670,493 | 809,863 | 951,952 | 961,666 | 961,666 | 5,280,804 |
| Partner upside share, 30% ($) | 0 | 28,242 | 67,910 | 160,159 | 217,910 | 383,223 | 588,656 | 585,742 | 585,742 | 2,617,584 |
| Implied population (credits ÷ 0.103) | — | 157,583 | 252,612 | 545,592 | 678,087 | 810,592 | 943,087 | 943,087 | 943,087 | — |
Credits and prices are proforma inputs (Voluntary channel 2025–26, CORSIA/LDC from 2027; Mortenson contracted offtake 147,440 credits 2027–33 is the floor case, scenario S1). Yield 0.103 credits per person-year is the Gold Standard SDWS V2.0 bottom-up reconstruction, DHS-anchored. Flagged: the implied population ramp from 158K to 943K people is a proforma assumption; the verified current reach is 120,000 people across 200 sites.
| USAID BHA installation grant | $2,000,000 | installed the boreholes' sensors and repair platform the credits monitor; included so maintenance-only costs are never claimed against full-system benefits |
| Guaranteed first batch (2026) | $210,000 | MIN(credits, 7,000) × $30, once |
| Credit purchases, 2025–2033 | $5,280,804 | credits × buy price, per year above |
| TOTAL_PROGRAMME_COST | $7,490,804 | Formula single denominator; the build fails if any figure divides by anything else |
| Person-years served | 5,273,728 | credits ÷ 0.103; cost per person-year $1.42 |
| $ / tonne, cost basis | $13.79 | $7,490,804 ÷ 543,194 t · 13.4× below the $185 social cost of carbon |
| Credit integrity ratio | 0.765 | baseline residual 0.85 (flagged, V2.0 bottom-up, DHS-anchored) × uptime delivery 0.90 (sensor-measured) × leakage 1.0 |
| $ / tonne, integrity-adjusted | $18.03 | 10.3× below the SCC |
| Partner-side carbon revenue, 2025–33 | $8,108,389 | purchases + 30% upside share + first batch |
| Maintenance financing (70%) | $5,675,872 | the program's committed use of carbon revenue |
| Maintenance per person-year, steady state | $1.14 | 0.70 × $15.86 partner revenue per credit × 0.103 credits per person-year; computed at matched population, not the 120,000 current-reach figure |
| Scenario | Credits | $/t cost basis | $/t integrity-adj | Maint $/person-yr | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 543,194 | $13.79 | $18.03 | $1.14 | expanded-demand base |
| S1 · contracted-only (Mortenson 147,440) | 147,440 | $24.70 | $32.29 | $0.71 | the floor case; still 7.5× below the SCC |
| S2 · voluntary $10 backstop | 543,194 | $13.79 | $18.03 | $0.71 | cost side unchanged; maintenance financing thins |
| S3 · uptime 0.75 | 543,194 | $13.79 | $21.63 | $0.95 | integrity falls to 0.64; still 8.6× below the SCC |
| Dimension | Rating | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Effect-size quality | No health effect size is modeled, deliberately. The service outcomes are measured program data, not modeled effects. Designing a defensible drought-access to health pathway, or formally declining one, is the v2 gate. | |
| Counterfactual robustness | The observed counterfactual is the program's own baseline: 56% functionality and 214-day repairs under government-only maintenance. Carbon-side, the Mortenson offtake is philanthropic demand; a commercial replacement developer is less plausible at this yield. | |
| Moral-weight transparency | Not applicable in v1: no units of value are computed. Stated so the omission cannot be reintroduced silently. | |
| Attribution and integrity | Installation was USAID-funded; the carbon layer finances maintenance. The cost basis therefore includes the $2M grant rather than claiming maintenance-only costs against full-system benefits. | |
| Excluded factors | Excluded: any health valuation (by design), sensor replacement capex beyond the grant, NDMA co-financing (would lower Virridy-attributable cost), and the flagged population ramp. | |
| Ranking stability | The climate finding is stable: the worst scenario is $24.70 per tonne, 7.5× below the SCC. The fragile number is maintenance financing per person-year, which halves at the $10 voluntary backstop. |